October macro calendar: CPI on Oct 14 and the Fed meeting on Oct 27–28
Author: Crypffalo Research · 08:00 02/10/2026
After the Sep 16 rate hike, softer August PCE inflation has eased pressure on the Fed to hike again in October. September CPI will be the deciding data point.
October brings a lot of macro data that matters for the crypto market, as rate expectations are driving flows into risk assets.
Where the Fed stands
- On Sep 16, the Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike in more than 3 years.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continues to hold a hawkish stance on inflation.
Is inflation cooling?
- August PCE (released Sep 30) rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year.
- Core PCE rose 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.
- After the softer inflation data, the probability of another Fed hike in October fell from about 71% to below 50%.
- CME FedWatch (Sep 30): 52.9% chance the Fed holds rates, 47.1% chance of another 0.25 percentage point hike. On prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket (Oct 2), the odds for a hold were about 74%.
Calendar to watch (U.S. time)
- Oct 14: September CPI (consumer price index).
- Oct 27–28: FOMC meeting, with the rate decision announced on Oct 28.
- Oct 29: GDP and PCE.
Possible impact on crypto
- Cooling inflation and a Fed pause on hikes typically support risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
- Conversely, if CPI runs hot again, rate-hike expectations could return and pressure prices.
- Oil prices and the U.S.–Iran conflict remain sources of inflation risk to watch.
This content is for information only and is not financial advice.
Tags: Macro Calendar, CPI, Fed, Interest Rates
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