Bitcoin Slips to $81K as Fed's Waller Backs More Hikes, Trump Rules Out Iran Strike

Author: Crypffalo Research · 23:53 08/10/2026

Bitcoin hit a near three-week low around $81,000 as Fed Governor Waller signaled more rate hikes. Trump's pledge not to strike Iran before the midterms cooled oil, but BTC barely bounced.

Bitcoin Slips to $81K as Fed's Waller Backs More Hikes, Trump Rules Out Iran Strike

Bitcoin slid toward $81,000 on Thursday, Oct 8, its lowest level in nearly three weeks, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for further rate hikes and long-dated U.S. Treasury yields kept climbing. At around 16:40 GMT (23:40 GMT+7), President Donald Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, cooling oil prices, but bitcoin barely bounced. Coinbase data showed BTC near $80,950, down about 2.9% over 24 hours, while ETH traded near $2,420, down roughly 5.7%.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin touched the $80,700–$81,000 area, its lowest since Sept. 21 according to Cointelegraph, with roughly $430 million in long positions liquidated, per CoinGlass data.
Fed Governor Waller said he "anticipates additional hikes" to bring inflation back to 2% sooner, though not necessarily at consecutive meetings.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. will not strike Iran before the midterms, talks are ongoing and the blockade stays in place.
Brent crude eased from around $105 to $103 a barrel after the post, while WTI fell from about $92.70 to $90.50.

Waller: inflation too high, more hikes likely

In remarks published on the Fed's website on Oct 8, Waller said core PCE inflation ran at about 3% year-over-year in August, stuck in a 2.5%–3% band since spring 2024 and "not showing sufficient progress." The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to a 3.75%–4% range after nine months on hold.

Waller pointed to three sources of price pressure: AI infrastructure spending pushing up tech goods prices, elevated energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict, and tariff risks. He noted that 16 of 18 participants in the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections expect at least one more hike this year, and that futures markets price roughly an 85% chance of a hike by December. Still, he stressed the hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings," leaving room for a pause at the late-October meeting.

At the same time, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.7%, which BigGo Finance and Cointelegraph describe as its highest level since 2002. Higher long-term yields raise the cost of capital and tend to weigh on risk assets such as tech stocks and crypto.

Trump steps back on Iran, oil cools

Earlier in the day, markets were rattled by reports from The Atlantic and other outlets that the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options against Iran. Brent briefly approached $106. Trump then wrote that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections," described talks with Tehran as "productive," and said the blockade "will remain in full force and effect."

According to CBS News, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations continue through intermediaries and that Tehran will respond to Washington's proposal "within a few days." FXStreet reported that the S&P 500 trimmed its losses from 0.58% to 0.19% after the post.

What it means for crypto markets

The notable detail is that bitcoin did not follow oil's reversal. That suggests the current pressure is driven not just by war risk but by the rate outlook: the Fed is in a hiking cycle, long-dated yields sit at multi-decade highs, and spot bitcoin ETFs just logged about $485 million in net outflows on Oct 7.

The constructive scenario: if the risk of U.S. strikes on Iran keeps fading, lower oil prices could temper inflation expectations, ease pressure on yields and help bitcoin hold the $80,000–$82,500 zone. The flush of roughly $430 million in long liquidations has also cooled leverage in derivatives markets.

The risk scenario: if inflation data stays hot and the 30-year yield pushes higher, markets could price in an earlier Fed hike, pulling more capital out of risk assets. Iran's reply in the coming days could also send oil back up. ETH's notably steeper decline versus BTC suggests altcoins remain more exposed to selling when sentiment turns cautious.

What to watch next

Iran's formal response to the U.S. proposal, expected within days.
U.S. September CPI data and further Fed speakers ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting.
Moves in 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, plus bitcoin and ether ETF flows.
Check the economic calendar for release dates and real-time liquidations to track leverage.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why didn't bitcoin rally after Trump ruled out an Iran strike?

Because the Fed signaled further hikes at the same time and long-dated yields sit near multi-decade highs, keeping pressure on risk assets.

Will the Fed hike rates in late October?

Not necessarily. Waller said hikes need not come at consecutive meetings, and markets lean toward a hike by December rather than in October.

How do rising Treasury yields affect crypto?

Higher yields make non-yielding assets like bitcoin relatively less attractive and raise borrowing costs, which typically dampens risk appetite.

*This content is for information only and is not financial advice.*

Tags: Bitcoin, Fed, Iran, Interest Rates, Oil

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