Fed Minutes: Most Officials See Another Rate Hike by Year-End; Bitcoin Near $83,000

Author: Crypffalo Research · 05:53 08/10/2026

Minutes from the Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting show most officials expect another rate hike by year-end as PCE inflation runs at 3.8%. Bitcoin slipped toward $83,000 after the release.

Fed Minutes: Most Officials See Another Rate Hike by Year-End; Bitcoin Near $83,000

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released the minutes of its Sept. 15-16 policy meeting, where officials voted 12-0 to lift the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4% range. The headline takeaway: most participants judged that a further increase "would likely be appropriate" by year-end. Crypto markets took the news cautiously, with bitcoin hovering around $83,300, down about 2.5% over 24 hours.

Key takeaways

The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September, its first hike since 2023, with no dissents.
Most officials see one more hike before year-end but gave no timing signal, stressing a data-dependent approach.
Fed staff estimated August PCE inflation at 3.8% and core PCE at 3.4%, and do not expect inflation to return to the 2% goal until 2029.
Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions were a central concern, with inflation risks seen as skewed to the upside.
Bitcoin dipped to roughly $83,065 and ether traded near $2,564, down about 4.7% on the day, per CoinGecko.

What the minutes said

According to the document published on the Fed's website, participants said they had not seen sufficient progress on inflation. Core services excluding housing and core goods prices remained elevated. Many officials warned that the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the risk that price pressures spread more broadly, and some noted that businesses were having more success passing higher costs on to customers.

On tariffs, officials said their effect on core goods prices had faded, though further tariff increases remain an upside risk to inflation. The minutes also flagged the AI investment boom as a source of demand that is adding to price pressures in some tech-related goods.

On the policy path, most participants saw another hike as likely appropriate by year-end, and many described a higher rate path as prudent risk management. Still, the committee said it would approach each meeting with an open mind and let incoming data guide decisions, leaving it unclear whether the next move comes in October or December.

Labor market and the bond backdrop

Officials described the labor market as stable and close to maximum employment, with risks to jobs broadly balanced. Keep in mind the minutes reflect conditions in mid-September, before the Oct. 2 jobs report showed the U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September while unemployment rose to 4.2%. According to the AP, investors are leaning toward the Fed holding rates at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, with officials potentially waiting until December, when two more months of data will be available.

The bond market adds to the pressure. On Wednesday the 10-year Treasury yield briefly tested 5.35%, roughly a 24-year high according to FXStreet, while the 30-year yield climbed to about 5.72%. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on risk assets across the board.

What it means for crypto markets

In the bearish case, a "higher for longer" message combined with multi-decade-high Treasury yields could keep pressure on bitcoin and altcoins. Capital tends to favor safe, yield-bearing assets, the dollar finds support, and leveraged positions become vulnerable as volatility rises. CoinGlass data cited by The Crypto Times showed most liquidations in the hours around the release came from long positions.

In the more constructive case, much of the minutes' message was already priced in. The Fed signaled a hawkish stance right after the September meeting, and the weak jobs data since then has cooled expectations for an October hike. If upcoming inflation prints soften, markets could reassess the odds that the Fed pauses, which would help risk sentiment. The price reaction after the release was also relatively contained, with bitcoin bouncing from its short-term low near $83,065.

The bigger picture is that crypto is trading with heightened sensitivity to macro data. Each upcoming inflation and jobs release has the potential to shift rate expectations.

What to watch next

Oct 14: U.S. September CPI, a key input ahead of the next Fed decision.
Oct 27-28: The next FOMC policy meeting.
Oil prices and Middle East tensions, which the Fed repeatedly cited.
The 10-year Treasury yield around the 5.3% area.

Check our economic calendar for data release times and follow real-time liquidations when volatility picks up.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the Fed minutes?

They are a detailed summary of the Federal Open Market Committee's policy discussion, typically released about three weeks after each meeting, offering insight into the reasoning behind rate decisions.

Is an October rate hike guaranteed?

No. The minutes show most officials expect one more hike by year-end but do not specify timing. The decision depends on upcoming inflation and jobs data.

Why are rate hikes usually negative for crypto?

Higher interest rates and bond yields raise the cost of capital and make safer assets more attractive, which tends to slow inflows into risk assets such as crypto.

*This content is for information only and is not financial advice.*

Tags: Fed, Interest Rates, Inflation, Bitcoin

Crypffalo: Crypto news & data