September 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls: US adds just 29,000 jobs, unemployment rises to 4.2%

Author: Crypffalo Research · 19:50 02/10/2026

The US September jobs report surprised: NFP came in at just 29K vs. 89K expected, unemployment rose to 4.2% and hourly earnings grew only 0.1%. Bitcoin jumped to $87,000 and the odds of an October Fed hike fell to 13%.

September 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls: US adds just 29,000 jobs, unemployment rises to 4.2%

The September Nonfarm results are in, and the report came in much weaker than expected! According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, less than a third of expectations.

September 2026 Nonfarm report results

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP): actual 29K, forecast 89K, prior 133K.
Unemployment rate: actual 4.2%, forecast 4.1%, prior 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings (MoM): actual 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, prior 0.3%. Year over year, wages rose only 3.0% (forecast 3.2%).

Earlier data was also revised down

August was revised from +162K to +133K, and July from +21K to −10K. In total, the two months lost 60,000 jobs compared with the initial releases.
Over the past 12 months, the US has added only about 45,000 jobs per month on average, showing the labor market is cooling quite clearly.
By sector: healthcare +17K, construction +11K, manufacturing +9K; financial activities −7K.

How did markets react?

For markets, this was a "bad news is good news" case: a weaker economy means less pressure to raise rates.
Bitcoin jumped to the $87,000 zone, up about 2% on the day.
Gold rose more than 1%, and Nasdaq futures gained about 1.2%.
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell about 7 basis points to around 5.17%; the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped from about 102.1 to 101.7.

What will the Fed do next?

The Fed just raised rates for the first time in 3 years at its September meeting due to inflation (August CPI at 3.4%).
After this report, the probability of another Fed rate hike at the Oct 27–28 meeting fell from 23% to 13%, according to CME FedWatch. A hold is now the dominant scenario.
The next key data point: September CPI, released on Oct 14. If inflation stays hot, rate-hike pressure could return.

Crypffalo view

In the short term, weak hiring and slow wage growth help cool rate-hike expectations, supporting risk assets such as crypto.
However, if the US economy weakens too quickly, recession fears could bring sharp volatility back to markets. Manage your capital carefully, limit high leverage and keep an eye on CPI on Oct 14.

This content is for information only, not financial advice.

Tags: Nonfarm, US Jobs, Fed, Interest Rates, Bitcoin

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