"Uptober": Bitcoin rose in 6 of the last 8 Octobers, but remember the $19 billion liquidation of Oct 10, 2025
Author: Crypffalo Research · 20:30 04/10/2026
From 2018 to 2025, Bitcoin rose in 6 Octobers and fell in 2. History leans bullish, but October 2025 saw the largest liquidation day in crypto history.
"Uptober" is what the crypto community calls October, because it is often a month when Bitcoin rises. Data from the last 8 years shows this is partly true, but there are also costly lessons about leverage.
Bitcoin in recent Octobers
- 2018: −3.8%
- 2019: +10.3%
- 2020: +28.0%
- 2021: +39.9%
- 2022: +5.5%
- 2023: +28.5%
- 2024: +11.0%
- 2025: −3.9%
Result: 6 of 8 Octobers were up, 2 were down, and both declines were small (under 4%).
The lesson of October 2025
On Oct 10, 2025, about $19 billion in leveraged positions was liquidated in just 24 hours, the largest liquidation day in crypto history, after the US announced new tariff policies. Although October 2025 ended only 3.9% lower, many high-leverage accounts were wiped out in a single day.
The lesson: seasonal statistics cannot protect you from sudden bad news. Learn how it works in What is a liquidation price.
How has October 2026 started?
- Bitcoin held around $84,800 on Oct 4.
- Near resistance is around $86,600, support around $83,500.
- Price is above the 50-day moving average (about $78,300) and the 200-day (about $75,300).
- Events that could move prices sharply: US CPI on Oct 14 and the Fed meeting on Oct 27–28. See the Economic Calendar.
What should you do?
- Use seasonal statistics as one reference point, not the only reason to buy.
- Limit high leverage around major macro data releases.
- Follow real-time liquidations to see which side is being flushed out, and read the Morning Brief every day for a quick market overview.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is not financial advice.
Tags: Bitcoin, Seasonality, Liquidations
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