Markets "Frozen" Ahead of September Nonfarm: Scenarios to Know Tonight

Author: Crypffalo Research · 18:45 02/10/2026

The US September jobs report is released at 19:30 tonight (GMT+7). NFP is forecast at only about 90,000, sharply down from August's 162,000. Barclays also warns August's figure could be revised into negative territory.

Markets "Frozen" Ahead of September Nonfarm: Scenarios to Know Tonight

There's an important Nonfarm release tonight! The US September nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) will be published at 19:30 GMT+7, and the market is almost "frozen" waiting for this number.

Key points to watch

September NFP is expected at only about 90,000 jobs, sharply down from August's 162,000.
The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%, with annual wage growth of about 3.2%.
Barclays warns: using this year's seasonal adjustment factors, August's +162,000 could turn into −74,000 jobs. So whether August's data gets revised down may matter even more than the September number itself.

Scenario 1: Data WEAKER than forecast

NFP below 90,000, or August's data revised down sharply.
Investors will bet the Fed has to hold rates.
USD weakens, bond yields fall; gold and US stocks could break out.

Scenario 2: Data STRONGER than forecast

NFP above 100,000, wages rising faster than 3.2%.
Expectations of a Fed rate hike could return, and DXY keeps rising.
This is bad news for risk assets in general.

What about crypto?

IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL! Prices could swing sharply in both directions around the release, so manage your risk and avoid high leverage.

Rate context

On prediction markets, the odds of the Fed holding rates at the Oct 28 meeting are fairly favorable, at about 76%.

For information only, not financial advice.

Tags: Nonfarm, US Jobs, Fed, Interest Rates

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